高级检索+

基于CEEMDAN-WD-PSO-LSSVM模型的月径流预测研究

Monthly Runoff Prediction Based on CEEMDAN-WD-PSO-LSSVM Model

  • 摘要: 针对径流序列的非线性、非稳态化的特点导致直接预测精度低的问题,提出了一种二次分解径流时间序列,再经过最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)模型进行月径流预测的新途径。该方法首先利用自适应噪声的完整集成经验模态分解(CEEMDAN)算法来分解原始径流时间序列,得到一系列本征模态分量(IMF)。再利用小波分解(WD)对高频分量进行二次分解,更有效地提取原始数据中的隐含信息。把各分量作为基于粒子群算法(PSO)优化的LSSVM预测模型的输入,最后将每个分量预测结果进行叠加重构,得到最终结果。以洛河流域长水水文站月径流为例,验证结果表明:提出的CEEMDAN-WD-PSO-LSSVM组合模型的预测精度较单一模型有效提高了径流预报精度,CEEMDAN-WD二次分解可更有效地提取复杂径流序列的信息,为非线性、非稳态化的月径流时间序列预测提供了新方法。

     

    Abstract: Aiming at the problem of low accuracy of direct prediction due to the non-linear and unstable characteristics of runoff series,a new method based on double decomposition of runoff time series and least squares support vector machine(LSSVM)model is proposed for monthly runoff prediction. Firstly,the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise(CEEMDAN)is used to decompose the original runoff time series into a series of intrinsic mode function(IMF). Then the technique of wavelet decomposition(WD)is utilized to decompose the high-frequency components to extract the implicit information from the original data more effectively. Each component is taken as the input of the LSSVM prediction model optimized by particle swarm optimization(PSO). Finally,the prediction results of each component are superimposed and reconstructed to obtain the final result. Taking the monthly runoff at Changshui Hydrological Station in Luohe River Basin as an example,the verification results show that the proposed CEEMDAN-WD-PSO-LSSVM combination model improves the accuracy of runoff prediction better than that of the single model. The double decomposition conducted by CEEMDAN-WD is more powerful to detect the information of complex runoff series,and provide a new approach for forecasting the nonlinear and unstable monthly runoff time series.

     

/

返回文章
返回