Application of the EEMD-ARIMA Combined Model in Drought Prediction:A Case Study in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region

In the context of global warming,drought becomes more and more frequent,causing negative impacts on agricultural and social activities. Based on the daily precipitation data of meteorological stations from 1960 to 2019 in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,this paper calculates the Standard Precipitation Index（SPI）in a timeframe of 1,3,6,9,12,24 months,then time series SPI at different temporal scales are predicted by ARIMA model and EEMD-ARIMA combined model. And the effectiveness of model is judged by the evaluation standard of RMSE,MAE,and R2. The main conclusions are as follows:the forecast results of the EEMD-ARIMA combined model in Xinjiang are consistent with Xinjiang yearbook. Therefore,the combined model can be used in the prediction of drought. Compared with ARIMA model,EEMD-ARIMA combined model can effectively reduce the non-stationary of series and match the SPI series better.The prediction accuracy of EEMD-ARIMA combined model is higher than that of ARIMA model at each time scale. The combined model has significant advantages in drought prediction.