Abstract:
In order to ensure the sustainable and sound development of land trusteeship, promote the large-scale operation of agriculture,and promote the development of agricultural modernization, Manas County in Xinjiang was taken as the sample population, and the evaluation was based on survey data collected from 236 questionnaires. Analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were then used to construct a risk assessment model whereby the weights of various indicators, evaluation factors, and the total risk value of the sample area were calculated and compared. The results showed that the comprehensive risk value of the trusteeship of rural contracted management land in Manas County was 52.85, and the risk level was in the middle position which indicated that it was more suitable for farmers with strong risk tolerance. However, it was not recommended to trust the contracted land for farmers with low risk tolerance. The various risk levels of land trusteeship were different. Among them, market risk was the risk most likely to occur in the process of land trusteeship for rural contracted management, followed by natural risk, business risk, financial risk, policy risk, and contract risk. Fluctuation of agricultural product market price, benefit distribution, risk prevention, and supervision mechanism are important factors affecting land trusteeship risk, and should be used as an important measurement index when farmers choose land trusteeship organization.