Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and prediction analysis of agricultural ecological efficiency in Northern Hebei Mountains

Based on the panel data of 21 counties in the Northern Hebei mountainous area from 2008 to 2018, an evaluation index system was established. The agricultural ecological efficiency in the Northern Hebei mountainous area was measured by super-efficiency SBM model. Through the time series analysis of Kernel density estimation and the direction distribution of ArcGIS, the spatial and temporal distribution pattern and macro-evolution characteristics of agricultural ecological efficiency were explored. The traditional and spatial Markov transition probability matrices were constructed to further explore the temporal and spatial evolution of agricultural ecological efficiency in the Northern Hebei mountainous area and predict the long-term evolution trend. From 2008 to 2018, the agricultural ecological efficiency in the mountainous areas of Northern Hebei showed an upward trend in fluctuation, and most counties reached relative efficiency. The gap of agricultural ecological efficiency among counties narrowed, and the center of agricultural ecological efficiency shifted 3.95 km to the Northeast. Northern Hebei Mountains agricultural ecological efficiency was significantly affected by the geographics of the neighborhood areas. Spatial spillover effect was obvious. It had to maintain the original state of stability. It was difficult to achieve substantial leap forward transfer between adjacent years. At the same time, the agricultural ecological efficiency in the mountainous areas of northern Hebei had a trend of transferring and aggregating to the middle and high grades, which had some potential for improvement. However, it was difficult to achieve the overall transfer to the high grades. This paper studied the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and development trend of agricultural ecological efficiency, quantitatively reflected the sustainable development level of regional agriculture, and provided references for formulating local policies.