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1960-2015年唐秦地区降雨及侵蚀性降雨变化趋势及突变分析

Analysis on the change trend and abrupt change of rainfall and erosive rainfall in Tang-Qin region from 1960 to 2015

  • 摘要: 降雨是水力侵蚀的主因, 降雨的地理分异规律是各地水力侵蚀特性差异的主因, 因此研究降雨时间变化特征对区域水土保持工作具有重要意义。应用变化趋势和突变分析方法(Mann-Kendall检验)对唐秦地区1960-2015年降雨及侵蚀性降雨变化趋势及突变进行分析。结果表明: 1)唐秦地区多年平均降雨量639.19 mm, 呈波动下降趋势, 平均每年减少1.46 mm; 多年平均侵蚀性降雨量为443.78 mm, 呈波动下降趋势, 平均每年减少1.58 mm。2)季降雨特点为夏季降雨最多, 平均降雨量466.15 mm, 占全年降雨的72 %, 春秋2季次之, 冬季最少; 夏季降雨呈波动下降走势, 气候倾向率为-3.0011/a, 春、秋和冬季降雨呈波动上升走势, 气候倾向率分别为0.5083/a、0.4586/a和0.2075/a。3)夏季侵蚀性降雨呈波动下降走势, 气候倾向率为-2.2275/a, 春季和秋季侵蚀性降雨量呈波动上升趋势, 气候倾向率分别为0.1946/a和0.5361/a。4)年降雨突变发生在1996和2011年, 年侵蚀性降雨量突变发生在2012年; 季节变化上, 春季降雨及侵蚀性降雨分别在1965和2013年发生突变, 夏季降雨及侵蚀性降雨突变年份在1989和2012年, 秋季降雨突变点为2003年, 侵蚀性降雨突变年份为2006年, 冬季突变年份在1984年。唐秦地区地形复杂, 降雨变化规律多变, 夏季降雨量多且侵蚀性降雨量大, 需加强水土流失防治工作, 同时该规律可为唐秦地区水土保持监测工作提供依据。

     

    Abstract:
    Background Rainfall is the main cause of hydraulic erosion, and the geographical differentiation pattern of rainfall is the main cause of the difference in hydraulic erosion characteristics of various regions. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the characteristics of rainfall time variation for regional soil and water conservation. Tang-Qin region is one of the areas with the most serious soil erosion in Hebei province. Soil erosion has varying degrees of impact on the agricultural production and development of the region and the formulation of soil erosion control measures. Thus, the analysis of the rainfall change trend in the Tang-Qin region will reduce soil erosion, and the protection of downstream water sources is of great significance.
    Methods This paper mainly applied the change trend and mutation analysis method (Mann-Kendall test) to analyze the annual rainfall and erosive rainfall changing trends and mutations of the rainfall data at 5 stations in the Tang-Qin region from 1960 to 2015. Data are from China Meteorological Network.
    Results 1) The average annual rainfall in Tang-Qin region was 639.19 mm, showing a downward trend of fluctuations, with an average annual decrease of 1.46 mm; the average annual erosive rainfall was 443.78 mm, showing a downward trend of fluctuations, with an average annual decrease of 1.58 mm. 2) The seasonal rainfall was characterized by the most rainfall in summer, with an average rainfall of 466.15 mm, accounting for 72 % of the annual rainfall, followed by spring and autumn, and the least in winter; summer rainfall showed a declining trend, with a climate tendency of -3.001 1/a. The rainfall in the spring, summer and winter showed a rising trend, with climate tendency rates of 0.508 3/a, 0.458 6/a, and 0.207 5/a, respectively. 3) In summer, erosive rainfall showed a declining trend, with a climatic tendency rate of -2.227 5/a, and erosive rainfall in the spring and autumn showed a volatile fluctuation trend, with a climatic tendency rate of 0.194 6/a and 0.536 1/a, respectively. 4) Sudden changes in annual rainfall occurred in 1996 and 2011, and sudden changes in annual erosive rainfall occurred in 2012. Seasonal changes, sudden changes in the spring and erosive rainfall in 1965 and 2013, and sudden changes in the summer and erosive rainfall in 1989 and 2012, the sudden change point of autumn rainfall was 2003, the sudden change year of erosive rainfall was 2006, and the sudden change year of winter was 1984.
    Conclusions The terrain in the Tang-Qin region is complicated, the pattern of rainfall changes is variable, the summer rainfall is heavy and the erosive rainfall is large, and the prevention and control of soil erosion needs to be strengthened. Meanwhile, this pattern may provide a basis for monitoring soil and water conservation in the Tang-Qin region.

     

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