Objective Ecological carrying capacity (ECC) is crucial for evaluating high-quality development and ecosystem health within the nine provinces (regions) of the Yellow River Basin. However, research on the spatiotemporal variations in ECC in these provinces (regions) remains insufficient.

Methods To investigate the ECC of the nine provinces (regions) in the Yellow River Basin, an ecological carrying capacity evaluation system was established by applying the pressure-state-response model based on the current status of resources, environment, economy, and society of the Yellow River Basin. A systematic quantitative study was conducted employing a comprehensive analytical framework integrating the combined weighting-TOPSIS model, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and obstacle degree model to delineate the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and identify the key influencing factors of the ECC of the nine provinces (regions) in the Yellow River Basin from 2007 to 2021.

Results 1) The ECC of the nine provinces (regions) in the Yellow River Basin increased overall, albeit with fluctuations, particularly exhibiting a marked acceleration after 2015, and the mean value reached 0.37 in 2021. 2) The ECC of Qinghai province was significantly higher than that of the other provinces (regions), yet the differences among the provinces (regions) decreased annually. 3) The spatial heterogeneity of ECC across the nine provinces (regions) was insignificant, with only Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi showing relatively large differences. 4) The obstacle degree of per capita water resources was consistently the highest during the study period, and its constraining effect continued to strengthen, indicating that resources and environment served as the primary impediments to the ECC of the nine provinces (regions).

Conclusions The ECC of the nine provinces (regions) along the Yellow River generally shows an increasing trend but is approaching overload, and resources and environment are the main obstacle factors restricting ECC. This study reveals the evolution patterns and key constraints of ECC in these provinces, providing valuable insights for ECC improvement and ecological conservation strategies, aiming to foster sustainable development in the nine provinces (regions) of the Yellow River Basin.