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半干旱黄土高原垄沟集雨径流预测SCS-CN模型参数优化

Optimized parameters of SCS-CN model for runoff prediction in ridge-furrow rainwater harvesting in semi-arid region of Loess Plateau

  • 摘要:
    目的 本研究旨在评估SCS-CN模型在小尺度流域适用性,提高SCS-CN模型预测精度。
    方法 利用 2015—2016 年降水−径流数据回归分析确定SCS-CN 模型初损量;采用均方根误差和纳什效率系数,优化SCS-CN模型参数;利用2017—2018年降雨−径流数据验证优化SCS-CN模型。
    结果 初损率对SCS-CN模型敏感性大于径流曲线数。传统平作、开敞垄和打结垄的优化初损率分别为0.033~0.039、0.030~0.035和0.029~0.030,潜在最大滞留量分别为104.9~124.7、186.8~227.4和231.2~243.6 mm,径流曲线数分别为67.1~70.8、52.8~57.6和51.0~52.3。坡度5°和10°的优化初损率分别为0.033 和 0.032,潜在最大滞留量分别为 185.2和 178.8 mm, 径流曲线数分别为 57.8 和58.7。
    结论 垄沟集雨种植,尤其打结垄沟集雨种植,具有较低优化初损率、径流曲线数和较高潜在最大滞留量,优化初损率和径流曲线数随坡度增加而增加,潜在最大滞留量随坡度增加而降低。优化SCS-CN模型能准确预测垄沟集雨种植径流。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective This study aims to evaluate the applicability of the SCS-CN model in small-scale watersheds and improve the prediction accuracy of the SCS-CN model.
    Methods This study utilized regression analysis of precipitation and runoff data from 2015 to 2016 to determine initial abstraction. The statistical parameters, including root mean square error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), were employed to optimize initial abstraction ratios and potential maximum retention values of the SCS-CN model. Validation of the SCS-CN model with optimized parameters was performed using rainfall-runoff data from 2017 to 2018.
    Results The initial abstraction ratio was more sensitive to the SCS-CN model than the runoff curve number. The optimized initial abstraction ratios for flat planting, open-ridging, and tied-ridging were 0.033−0.039, 0.030−0.035, and 0.029−0.030, respectively. The corresponding potential maximum retention values for flat planting, open-ridging, and tied-ridging were 104.9−124.7 mm, 186.8−227.4 mm, and 231.2−243.6 mm, respectively, while the curve numbers (CN) were 67.1−70.8, 52.8−57.6, and 51.0−52.3, respectively. For slope gradients of 5° and 10°, the optimized initial abstraction ratios were 0.033 and 0.032, respectively, with potential maximum retention values of 185.2 mm and 178.8 mm, respectively. The CN values for slope gradients of 5° and 10° were 57.8 and 58.7, respectively. Ridge-furrow rainwater harvesting, particularly tied-ridging rainwater harvesting, demonstrated lower optimized initial abstraction ratios and CN values, coupled with higher potential maximum retention values, compared to flat planting. Both optimized initial abstraction ratio and CN value increased as slope gradient increased, while potential maximum retention decreased as slope gradient increased.
    Conclusions The optimized SCS-CN model can accurately predict runoff in ridge-furrow rainwater harvesting.

     

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